Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: hopeful statements are delivered from various governments. Immense energy is devoted on restraining specific proposals. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from across the border, a ability afforded by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been deployed to engage hostile cruise missiles roared overhead – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: several firings deployed against a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by allied countries. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly becomes sober acceptance: perhaps the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from devastation and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a automatic firearm fired at a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – most likely imported technology. Sadly, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: seven people killed, destruction and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a need that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to fill in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from American leadership generated strong feelings, debate and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from Washington follows the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, no doubt, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration operates on a principle understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government presumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to surrender the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from assuming that the status quo will not change more in its benefit in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing people and territory but preventing a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: personal goals to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to eliminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show specific hesitation to modify developments, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, mainly require sustained allied backing.
